Brexit has brought uncertainty to the UK business world, including the transport sector. There is clearly a close connection between demand for transport and the health of the UK economy, therefore the fortunes of the transport sector will depend on how the UK economy fares in the unprecedented times ahead.
There are many economic factors that will impact the transport sector. Employment figures, particularly in central London where public transport dominates will affect the demand for public transport and the business case for further investments in the UK transport industry. If significant employers in the City move their headquarters or operations abroad, then the implication is that demand for public transport also falls.
The devaluation of sterling is already having an impact on the transport sector. For example, the major rolling stock manufacturers are global players. Deals priced in sterling by manufacturers based in mainland Europe are under threat. Conversely, the devaluation may assist the competitiveness abroad of UK based manufacturers such as Bombardier.
Much of the transport related law in the UK has an EU origin but has been implemented by statutory instrument in the UK. These statutory instruments are likely to remain law after Brexit, albeit that post Brexit the UK Government will have the ability to repeal them. In the meantime, significant investment continues to be made in EU stipulated schemes such as the ETCS railway signalling system.
Globally and particularly in the EU, the trend is towards liberalisation of the railway system along the lines of the UK in more and more countries.